User blog comment:CNBA3/New Arc Idea! Civil War Arc!!!/@comment-25693405-20150112223015/@comment-7418318-20150112225654

Wanting power alone isn't enough. Unless a faction has a strong enough force, they will be dealt with in very short order even if they are stupid enough to try it.

But who could have such forces (whether it's few strong enough mages or a large number of weaker ones)?

One faction is clearly the royal family and they'd most likely be allied (or even part of the same faction) as those clinging to the idea of a magic council.

The Wizard Saints are another possible faction due to the sheer power they have individually and the respect they command.

But who else is there? After the defeat of the entire Balam Alliance and many of their associate guilds, as well as the destruction of several of their numbers by Crime Sorciere, the remaining Dark Guilds are surely scattered and unorganized right now, so they aren't in a position to join in (not as their own faction anyway).

The Zentopian church is still reeling from the Infinity Clock incident (not to mention that they sent their elites off to take care of the clock parts) so I doubt they'd be willing to actively participate in a war and as far as we know they are the only sizable religious fellowship in Fiore.

That leaves only big business conglomerates or rebelling nobles, but I doubt Mashima would put in more than one of each, which brings the number only up to four, unless another country get's involved.

In Fiore military affairs seem to be mostly decided by magic, so we can pretty savely disregard militias and such. They might get a handfull of comparetively weak free wizards to join them, but not enough to be a real threat to big factions.