User blog comment:IamJakuhoRaikoben/Chapter 463: Black Carpet, Review./@comment-124.82.58.141-20151125101811

After reading all the comments here i realized something, most of the people here need to study probability.

Sending reinforcement to Natsu instead of other guilds isn't a smart like most think, in fact sending reinforcement to Natsu is the dumbest fucking move anyone could do at this point.


 * 1) The other guilds have no information on the enemy at all. They have no idea what to prepare against, they don't even know God Serena is now their enemy, that's like asking a man to go to a jungle that has a tiger with a stick and tell the man to be careful.
 * 2) Is there guarantee that sending reinforcement to Natsu = victory.

Right now FT is cornered on 4 sides North (25%) - Can lose (12.5%), may win (12.5%) South (25%) - Can lose (12.5%), may win (12.5%) East (25%) - Can lose (12.5%), may win (12.5%) West (25%)- Can lose (12.5%), may win(12.5%)

So if we consider FT as another group (100%), sending reinforcement to Natsu now is splitting 2 sides to 3 sides, changing the winning percentage from 50% to 33.33% for two of the directions. How is that a smart move if you're a strategist. Are you seriously saying that having 45.83% of winning of 2 sides is better than 62.5% of winning on two direction.