User blog comment:IamJakuhoRaikoben/Chapter 431 & 432: My sword is... & Brair in Love, Review./@comment-7418318-20150428192253/@comment-7418318-20150428205446

I have enough trouble believing that Makarov might be Arlock, but I really can't believe he created Avatar to get the guild back together.

First off, Avatar was active at least half a year. Why bother disbanding Fairy Tail only to start an elaborate plan to get them together again six or less month later?

Furthermore, why with such a stupid, elaborate and risky plan? If Arlocks prediction had been off by a few minutes, innocents would have died. And there's no guarantee that it would be Natsu & Co who intervened rather than a different guild. Don't forget that origianlly it was Rogue and Minerva who went after Avatar, not Natsu and Lucy.

The only justification I could see for Makarov being Arlock would be to draw out Zeref by sacrificing the Avatar members and lure him into a trap, but again that's rather far-fetches since I can't really believe that Zeref would give a second's thought for the Avatar people.