User blog comment:IamJakuhoRaikoben/Chapter 463: Black Carpet, Review./@comment-124.82.58.141-20151125101811/@comment-25111584-20151125112505

@Nick: There's a difference between holding somebody hostage and generally threatening somebody. How exactly is FT going to attack their enemy head-on if they have Natsu in their hands? They don't even need to kill him, just mutilate him in front of FT to prevent any foolhardy behaviour. Remember Lisanna in Tartaros arc? Lucy in Avatar arc? The only with who has shown the balls to put his comrades' life in danger is Gray, and even then it's more because he believed that things would work out rather than actually being willing to sacrifice a friend. FT are not going to sacrifice a guildmate, though I would definitely be delighted if I'm proven wrong regarding this point.

I agree with what Rai said in the other thread: FT will attempt a rescue operation while pretending to obey. In either case, from an in-universe perspective, a rescue operation would be the most likely outcome. And rescuing Natsu now with a clear escape route available and their enemy split up would be much easier than rescuing a defeated Natsu being guarded by an enemy who is alert for any rescue attempt and can use Natsu himself as a deterrent.

@anon: lol, SAS 'cuz SSS 'cuz SAS much?

And when has Mavis intentionally sacrificed any of the people she holds dear? If you believe that she's willing to let Natsu die, be my guest. Later events might even prove you correct. But, as of the moment, quite a few people will definitely not consider this point of yours to be valid.

Also as Nick said, putting such simple numbers to battles is not a great idea, although I can't say people don't use statistics while planning strategies. Still, here are a few things I'd consider wrong:
 * 1) You're assuming chance of victory in each battle is 50%.
 * 2) You're assuming each battle to be equally important in the course of the war.
 * 3) Natsu's action itself is extremely significant, yet you're completely ignoring the potential consequences.
 * 4) You're assuming victory in a battle to be much more important than the aftermath.

I'm sure there are more...