User blog comment:IamJakuhoRaikoben/Chapter 463: Black Carpet, Review./@comment-124.82.58.141-20151125101811/@comment-7418318-20151125104407

Considering that millions upon millions would die and how Fairy Tail reacted to all the "surrender or die" threats they got so far, I think they wouldn't give LH up even if they believed it.

They would most likely react with an all-out assault to free Natsu before the execution could happen, but they wouldn't give in.

That being said, while I agree that leaving Natsu flapping in the breeze and going with the original plan is the best choice of action, I also think you can'T just tag a percentage on win-or-lose onto each frontline. Battles are far too complex with far too many factors to get any accurate percentage. And even if you could, what would it matter. Even a 1 % chance to win still doesn't mean they'll lose for sure, just that it's unlikely.

Better to apply strategy and tactics than just going by numbers alone.