User blog comment:IamJakuhoRaikoben/Chapter 463: Black Carpet, Review./@comment-124.82.58.141-20151125101811/@comment-24367018-20151125111333

For someone that holds probability in such high regard, you do seem to ignore quite a few aspects about it; such as how the odds of each flank winning being 50:50. Obviously this being FT the odds will forever be in the main character's favour, however in reality it wouldn't be such a clear and cut job.

You've not taken into consideration things like; odds of participants being injured given they are victorious [P(i|v)] or defeated [P(i|d)], probability of participants being killed given they are victorious [P(k|v)] or defeated [P(k|d)], the probability of participants dying as a result of their injuries later on given they are victorious [P(cti|v)] or defeated [P(cti|d)]. In short, it shouldn't be as clear cut as you're suggesting.